Is it controlled by the fed or fed by hype? Know your fundamentals!
People always wonder when the market will bottom or when will it peak... Let me tell you, don't bother with all of this. Why? Because no one can predict the market short term but I can try. What I usually do is look at indicators like strength of dollar, Macro variables, consumer confidence, bond movement, inventory and sales levels of companies, consumer confidence and insider trading ( the legal way
)...but all that mumbo jumbo is boring, I know believe me(well I like it).
What you need to focus on are solid investments that can weather the storm, I usually select stocks that are undervalued and give them appropriate weights, then change them or change their weights when they become fairly valued or overvalued. The second solid investment I believe in is Real Estate....when you buy a rental, you are getting an asset free and clear since the tenant is paying for the asset instead of you. In the mean time you get income and valuation after all the expenses have been deducted, meaning you can sell the house later with a higher value than what you bought it for and make income from the rent (current Cashflow in the interim). So if you stick with these two, you will retire comfortably. I will go into more detail on what to invest in per level of risk in my later posts....
Ok now let's go to the major point, market expectations of 2016..... I don't see much positivism, central banks trying the negative interest rates out of desperation is not good news, China is not doing well, their GDP is declining, South America is dependent on oil and you see how this is going, the energy sector which is 30% of the stocks has been declining. There are not much good news to keep pumping the market up but don't worry, the fed is pumping it with steroids lol. Has oil bottomed? Well yes and no, there is a huge supply of oil out there and I'm not sure what Iran has in store for us since they are ramping up production...all I can say is hold onto your horses and ride this one out. Of course I will write more about this in my future posts.
People always wonder when the market will bottom or when will it peak... Let me tell you, don't bother with all of this. Why? Because no one can predict the market short term but I can try. What I usually do is look at indicators like strength of dollar, Macro variables, consumer confidence, bond movement, inventory and sales levels of companies, consumer confidence and insider trading ( the legal way
What you need to focus on are solid investments that can weather the storm, I usually select stocks that are undervalued and give them appropriate weights, then change them or change their weights when they become fairly valued or overvalued. The second solid investment I believe in is Real Estate....when you buy a rental, you are getting an asset free and clear since the tenant is paying for the asset instead of you. In the mean time you get income and valuation after all the expenses have been deducted, meaning you can sell the house later with a higher value than what you bought it for and make income from the rent (current Cashflow in the interim). So if you stick with these two, you will retire comfortably. I will go into more detail on what to invest in per level of risk in my later posts....
Ok now let's go to the major point, market expectations of 2016..... I don't see much positivism, central banks trying the negative interest rates out of desperation is not good news, China is not doing well, their GDP is declining, South America is dependent on oil and you see how this is going, the energy sector which is 30% of the stocks has been declining. There are not much good news to keep pumping the market up but don't worry, the fed is pumping it with steroids lol. Has oil bottomed? Well yes and no, there is a huge supply of oil out there and I'm not sure what Iran has in store for us since they are ramping up production...all I can say is hold onto your horses and ride this one out. Of course I will write more about this in my future posts.
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